Alabama does not stand an opportunity, even with the lack of TCU
Someplace in a convention room close to Dallas, 13 members of the Faculty Soccer Playoff choice committee watched TCU’s Horned Frogs fall 11 factors behind Kansas State early within the fourth quarter of the Massive 12 championship sport.
It tells so much about how little credibility the committee has in the truth that the dialogue on social media instantly turned to the query of whether or not Alabama goes to interchange TCU within the playoffs.
The identical Alabama that misplaced twice in the course of the common season. The identical Alabama that did not win the SEC West. The identical Alabama that did not get a greater win than No. 20 Texas on September tenth.
Come on guys. Give the committee just a little extra credit score than that.
BIG 12:Loss to Kansas State places TCU school playoff destiny in committee fingers
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Though the Horned Frogs did lose the Massive 12 title sport in time beyond regulation, 31-28, any speak of TCU vs. Alabama is nothing greater than faux drama, heading into Sunday when the CFP area is firmly in place.
When the parenthesis opens at midday ET, it should most definitely be:
4. Ohio State
There’s one caveat the committee must cope with, which is the opportunity of flipping Ohio State and TCU, thus making a rematch of the rivalry we noticed in Columbus final weekend. Extra on this just a little later.
Alabama, nonetheless, is unlikely to be a significant a part of the dialogue. In that case, it should be quick, in any other case this committee will dare to stray removed from its protocols and precedents. In fact, the mere point out of Alabama as a viable candidate sounds extra like a conspiracy principle based mostly on the assumption that the committee cares extra about manufacturers and TV scores than outcomes.
TCU followers actually will not sleep nicely till that is official. They bear in mind the primary playoff in 2014 once they completed the season 11-1 with a 55-3 win over Iowa State, but fell from third to fifth when the ultimate rankings had been launched.
However it is a completely different yr and a unique set of circumstances. Whether or not you suppose TCU is pretty much as good as a soccer crew like Alabama or beat Alabama on a impartial area is irrelevant to the analysis of their respective seasons.
And nearly each metric the committee ought to use favors TCU.
TCU has the most effective document in opposition to the highest 25 (2-1 vs 2-2). He has a greater so-called “power rating”, which measures what number of video games your opponents have received. That they had a typical opponent in Texas, which TCU managed from begin to end in a 17-10 win, whereas Alabama needed to bounce again on the final minute to bounce again in week two.
Lastly, TCU’s time beyond regulation loss to Kansas State’s high 10 crew is healthier than Alabama’s four-loss time beyond regulation loss to LSU, which Georgia beat on Saturday for the SEC Championship. There’s additionally the problem of one other Alabama loss that might make them the primary two-loss crew ever included – an enormous hurdle for a crew that did not win its division.
It is actually not a detailed name. In a yr of imperfect groups, TCU did what wanted to be carried out and Alabama did not. Punishing the Horned Frogs for having to play a convention title sport in opposition to a crew that they had already crushed earlier within the season wouldn’t simply be a moot level—it could undermine all religion in what the playoffs ought to worth.
“We had been (No.) 3 final week and I hope we keep in third place and transfer up and see how we’re doing,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes mentioned.
If the committee intentionally does not need a rematch between Michigan and Ohio State from the sport that was performed final Saturday, then so be it. In any other case, even with TCU’s loss, it is exhausting to justify transferring the Buckeyes from No. 5 to No. 3 once they did nothing so as to add to their resume after dropping 45-23 at dwelling of their final sport.
If something, the Buckeyes needs to be grateful after their second half in opposition to Michigan that they’re going to have an opportunity to redeem themselves. They usually owe all of it to Southern California, whose dispute ended within the Pac 12 title sport on Friday night time with a 47-24 loss to Utah.
Having already misplaced to Utah within the common season, it made sense to arrange a rematch as a barrier that the Trojans needed to overcome – and so they did not simply fail, they had been uncovered.
With no different viable choices, Ohio State would have a black playoff exit benefit much like what occurred in 2017 when Alabama misplaced 26-14 to Auburn in a sport that determined the SEC West. After the undefeated Wisconsin misplaced a Massive Ten title sport to a two-loss Ohio State crew already out of competition, Alabama was capable of sneak in and find yourself profitable the nationwide championship. Let’s examine if Ohio can get pleasure from the identical luck.
It is unusual to have a playoff the place half the sphere misplaced their final sport, however that may turn into extra of the norm when it expands to 12 groups in 2025. champions, first spherical matches may look one thing like this: No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Tulane, No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 USC, No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Penn State, and No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Utah, whereas Georgia, Michigan, Kansas State and Clemson advance to the quarterfinals.
So long as the committee is answerable for evaluating groups, there’ll all the time be arguments about who ought to get the final locations. It is fully doable that Saturday nights will turn into much more attention-grabbing and controversial by 2025, on condition that the hole between the eighth and sixteenth positioned groups might be fairly small. It seems to be like there might be arguments in favor of the previous few instructions.
In observe, the four-team playoffs had been largely uncontroversial. Solely the seek for a doable plot twist led to the dialogue of Alabama. In any other case, there actually could be no precedent for the committee to significantly think about a crew with such little weight on its resume.
In any case the factitious outrage brought on by the committee’s weekly scores, ultimately their work was carried out for them.